2023 was a roller coaster for the global economy, stock, and job markets, marked by major geopolitical unrest and pressures from interest rate hikes, inflation, and widespread redundancies. As a tech recruitment firm in Bangkok, we observed a significant slowdown in hiring at the start of the year. However, things gradually began to pick up as we moved into Q3 & Q4. While it wasn't a complete disaster, it was a far cry from the buoyant market of previous years.
So, what does 2024 hold?
I recently conducted two LinkedIn polls to gauge people's thoughts and feelings about the job market outlook for 2024, and their career plans for the year, including whether they are considering a new role.
The results of the first poll, considering the overall job market outlook for 2024, are intriguing, showing an almost 50/50 split between the bull and bear cases.
The Bull & Bear Cases:
49% of respondents believe that the job market in 2024 will be better than the previous year, fostering optimism for an improved overall economy. This outlook is supported by the freezing of US interest rate hikes and predictions of their potential reduction, coupled with decreasing inflation and major economies like the US and Europe apparently avoiding recession, achieving a "soft landing".
However, almost half of the respondents think the market will either mirror 2023 or worsen, with 26% firmly in the bear camp. Global economists and forecasters are similarly divided, with many predicting deepening issues in 2024. These include a slowdown in the US and Chinese economies, growing household debt, a reduced consumer spending rate, and spiraling national debts in major economies, all of which could impact the general economy and the overall job market.
Thailand's Outlook:
In Thailand, the performance of major global economies has a trickle-down effect on the Thai market. In 2023, Thailand's economy and stock market faced significant challenges, with the SET Index experiencing one of the sharpest declines globally (15.15% drop) due to structural issues within its economy and an over-reliance on China for exports and tourism. The Thai economy, burdened by high household debt, achieved only modest growth, while the tourism sector suffered from fewer Chinese visitors than expected.
The Bank of Thailand predicts that the Thai economy grew by 2.4% in 2023 and could increase to around 3.2% or 3.8% in 2024, depending on various factors. The growth forecast remains cautious due to slower growth in major economies, spillover effects from geopolitical conflicts, the direction of private investment, and high household debt. However, there's potential for a positive turnaround in 2024, with projected growth driven by government spending and a possible increase in foreign investments, particularly in the EV sector.
With hiring trends intrinsically linked to economic performance, predicting the outlook for 2024 remains challenging, as indicated by the 50/50 split in the poll. My feeling is that 2024 will bear similarities to 2023, with the job market continuing to strengthen as the year progresses, although growth may be concentrated in a few sectors rather than across the whole market.
Job Market Optimism:
The second poll I conducted focused on people’s career plans for 2024 and whether they are planning a move. A significant 65% said they are definitely seeking a new role, with a further 27% possibly open to a new role. This indicates strong confidence in the job market heading into 2024. Job market optimism and confidence in job mobility are usually good indicators of people's general sentiments about the job market. This somewhat contradicts the first poll, which showed a pretty even split between those optimistic and pessimistic about the 2024 job market.
Conclusion:
As we step into 2024, the global and Thai job markets present a landscape of cautious optimism mingled with uncertainty. The contrasting views from the LinkedIn polls reflect a world still grappling with economic challenges yet hopeful for recovery and growth. For businesses and individuals alike, this year will likely be one of strategic adaptation, leveraging opportunities in burgeoning sectors while remaining vigilant in the face of potential economic fluctuations. Ultimately, whether 2024 turns out to be a year of the bull or the bear, it will undoubtedly be a year full of excitement, challenges and opportunity.